The effect of crime on adolescent fertility in Colombia

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to explore the role of violent crime on adolescent fertility choices. It reviews the hypothesis that violent crime shortens life expectancy, which leads individuals to make earlier decisions about childbearing. We model the adolescent fertility rate (AFR) for the 10-14 and 15-19 years age groups separately. We use a panel data set for Colombia at department level from 2003 to 2014, using Arellano-Bond estimator with department fixed effects. The empirical findings suggest that crime has a positive effect on AFR among adolescent aged 15-19, and is statistically significant at 10%. The results of this paper contribute to explaining the connection between crime and fertility choices in Colombia. It provides further insight into the different factors affecting AFR, and stimulates public debate on the need to strengthen the country’s institutions and to ensure access to quality education and the promotion of early interventions programs. results of this show a positive and significant relationship at 10% between the rate and the AFR for the 15-19 age group, supporting the hypothesis of this work. It suggests that AFR for the 15-19 age group increases by 61 births per 1000 women when the total number of increases by 1000 deaths per 100.000 inhabitants.