Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Extreme Civil Aviation Accidents

Abstract

This study estimates the probability of extreme fatalities from civil airplane accidents in the United States since the early 1980s. To this end, extreme civil airplane accidents were modeled using extreme value statistics, allowing for changes in the distribution due to other factors. The analysis revealed that an extreme aircraft accident causes 18 to 20 fatalities every two years with costs between 111.6 and 124 million U.S. dollars (USD); whereas accidents with (at least) between 70 and 100 fatalities will occur every 20 years, costing between 424 and 620 million USD. The findings also indicate that higher volumes of air traffic increase the return levels of severe aviation accidents, whereas higher ticket prices reduce the likelihood of these. The findings emphasize the serious consequences of airplane accidents with respect to the number of fatalities but also how these depend on market conditions.