Advanced Approaches to Assessment of Risk of Infectious Disease Importation onto the Territory of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The risk of importation of infectious diseases is an urgent threat to sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population, both at the level of individual countries and interstate associations, and globally. The territory of any country has a backdrop of hazards; therefore, the aim of the work was a comprehensive assessment of risk of infectious disease importation onto the territory of Russia for early and effective response to emerging biological threats. Materials and methods. We used information on the structure of passenger traffic and the number of persons arriving in Russia according to the portal of the Unified Interagency Information and Statistics System. The data on the incidence of infectious diseases which require measures on sanitary protection of the territory of Russia is provided according to the official regional websites of WHO, regional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Ministries of Health of the respective countries. The risk of importation of infectious diseases was estimated in points in compliance with an original methodology developed with the participation of the authors. Results and discussion. We have determined the structure of the passenger traffic across the borders of Russia and the most relevant infectious diseases that pose a risk of importation, as well as the countries, from where the importation of infections is most likely to occur. It is outlined that importation of dengue fever and cholera from the Southeast Asian region, dengue from the Western Pacific region, cholera and malaria from the Eastern Mediterranean region, cholera, malaria and dengue from the American and African regions is most probable.