Pass-Through Rates for Alcohol Beverage Excise Taxes: Fixed-Effect versus Random-Effects Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regressions

Abstract

This paper extends an earlier study to compare two methods for meta-analysis of economic data: fixed-effect models and random-effects models. The models differ fundamentally in the ability to generalize beyond the sample in question. Both models are applied to estimates of pass-through rates for excise taxes on alcohol beverages. Using best-set data from 30 primary studies, weighted means are first reported and compared against a fully-passed tax or rate of unity. Dispersion and heterogeneity statistics are used to assess the performance of each model. Second, means and dispersion statistics are reported by subgroups for country source, beverage (beer, wine-spirits), and published status. Third, tests are conducted for publication selection bias using funnel plots and regression asymmetry tests. Fourth, three procedures are undertaken to reduce selection bias: trim-and-fill; cumulative meta-analysis; and meta-regressions. Three conclusions are reached in the paper. First, average pass-through rates are approximately unity regardless of beverage. Primary researchers should compare estimated rates against this value. Second, a random-effects model is more appropriate for these data, reflecting highly diverse estimates of pass-through rates. Third, greater attention needs to be given to the choice of model for meta-regressions in economics and related disciplines.