Portuguese Society of Intensive Care Score for Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Infection Applied to Inpatients with Pneumonia: A Reliable Tool?

Abstract

Objectives: Early identification of patients with the novel coronavirus induced-disease 2019 (COVID-19) and pneumonia is currently challenging. Few data are available on validated scores predictive of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. The Portuguese Society of Intensive Care (PSIC) proposed a risk score whose main goals were to predict a higher probability of COVID-19 and optimize hospital resources, adjusting patients’ intervention. This study aimed to validate the PSIC risk score applied to inpatients with pneumonia. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 207 patients with pneumonia admitted to a suspected/confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection specialized ward (20/03 to 20/05/2020) was performed. Score variables were analyzed to determine the significance of the independent predictive variables on the probability of a positive SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR test. The binary logistic regression modeling approach was selected. The best cut-off value was obtained with the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve together with the evaluation of the discriminatory power through the Area Under the Curve (AUC). Results: The validation cohort included 145 patients. Typical chest computed-tomography features (OR, 12.16; 95% CI, 3.32 - 44.50) and contact with a positive SARS-CoV-2 patient (OR, 6.56; 95% CI, 1.33 - 32.30) were the most significant independent predictive variables. A score ≥ 10 increased suspicion for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The AUC was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.73 - 0.91) demonstrating the good discriminating power for COVID-19 probability stratification in inpatients with pneumonia. Conclusions: The application of the PSIC score to inpatients with pneumonia may be of value in predicting the risk of COVID-19. Further studies from other centers are needed to validate this score widely.