Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for Grid Reliability and Resource Adequacy

Abstract

This paper provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in New Mexico in the coming decades as a case study. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance among electrical load, generation, and storage was calculated throughout the year given these uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The annual loss of load expectation (LOLE) was probabilistically evaluated and found to increase from ~0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources caused by climate change and battery storage performance and capacity.