Review of Epidemiological Situation on Rickettsioses in the Russian Federation in 2022 as Compared with 2013–2021, Forecast for 2023

Abstract

The aim of the review was to characterize the epidemiological situation on tick-borne rickettsioses (TR) in the Russian Federation in 2022 in comparison with the pandemic years of 2020–2021 and the pre-pandemic period of 2013–2019, to give the forecast for 2023. During 2013–2022, a pattern was observed in the incidence of rickettsiosis of the tick-borne spotted fever group (with the exception of Astrakhan spotted fever – ASF), that is also characteristic of most other natural focal infections (NFIs): a sharp decrease in registered incidence rates in 2020–2021 with the subsequent increase in 2022 almost up to pre-pandemic levels or even exceedance in some regions. The absence of a defining influence of the frequency of contacts of the population with vectors on the decrease in the incidence in the period of 2020–2021 and the rise in the value in 2022 confirms the registration-related nature of the changes. Given due attention to the problem of effective detection and reporting of NFIs, we expect the incidence of tick-borne rickettsioses to remain within the confidence intervals of long-term average values in most endemic regions in 2023. Relaxed vigilance to the problem of NFIs may lead to a decline in the reported incidence of Siberian tick-borne typhus in the Krasnoyarsk and Zabaikalsky Territories, Republics of Tuva and Khakassia, Novosibirsk and Amur Regions; reduction in the incidence of ASF in Astrakhan Region. The main issue in detecting and registration of the tick-borne rickettsiosis incidence, objective assessment and forecasting of the epidemic situation as regards this group of infections is conditioned by the lack of domestic certified diagnostic test kits for laboratory verification of rickettsioses. Close cooperation between epidemiologists and clinicians is required to establish and register cases of TR based on clinical and epidemiological data.