Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States

IF 2 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric Science Letters Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI:10.1002/asl.1165

John T. Abatzoglou, Daniel J. McEvoy, Nicholas J. Nauslar, Katherine C. Hegewisch, Justin L. Huntington

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Abstract

The increasing complexity and impacts of fire seasons in the United States have prompted efforts to improve early warning systems for wildland fire management. Outlooks of potential fire activity at lead-times of several weeks can help in wildland fire resource allocation as well as complement short-term meteorological forecasts for ongoing fire events. Here, we describe an experimental system for developing downscaled ensemble-based subseasonal forecasts for the contiguous US using NCEP's operational Climate Forecast System version 2 model. These forecasts are used to calculate forecasted fire danger indices from the United States (US) National Fire Danger Rating System in addition to forecasts of evaporative demand. We further illustrate the skill of subseasonal forecasts on weekly timescales using hindcasts from 2011 to 2021. Results show that while forecast skill degrades with time, statistically significant week 3 correlative skill was found for 76% and 30% of the contiguous US for Energy Release Component and evaporative demand, respectively. These results highlight the potential value of experimental subseasonal forecasts in complementing existing information streams in weekly-to-monthly fire business decision making for suppression-based decisions and geographic reallocation of resources during the fire season, as well for proactive fire management actions outside of the core fire season.

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缩减美国全境的亚季节火灾危险预测技能

在美国，火灾季节的复杂性和影响日益增加，促使人们努力改善荒地火灾管理的早期预警系统。提前几周对潜在火灾活动的预测可以帮助野火资源分配，并补充正在发生的火灾事件的短期气象预报。在这里，我们描述了一个实验系统，该系统使用NCEP的业务气候预报系统第2版模型，为美国邻近地区开发基于集合的小尺度亚季节预报。除了蒸发需求的预测外，这些预测还用于计算来自美国国家火灾危险等级系统的预测火灾危险指数。我们使用2011年至2021年的预测数据进一步说明了在周时间尺度上进行亚季节预测的技巧。结果表明，虽然预测技能随着时间的推移而退化，但在连续的美国，76%和30%的能量释放成分和蒸发需求的第3周相关技能分别具有统计学显著性。这些结果突出了实验分季节预测在补充现有信息流方面的潜在价值，这些信息流可用于在火灾季节进行基于灭火的决策和资源的地理重新分配，以及在核心火灾季节之外采取主动的火灾管理行动。

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来源期刊

Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.