Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?

Abstract

The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial equilibrium forest sector model covering the Nordic countries. Experts in the sectors expected a further decrease in demand for printing and writing paper, but a significant increase in wood-based biofuel production. A “conservative” scenario, with a prolongation of current trends and no wood-based biofuel production, leads to declining wood prices but still slightly increased harvest levels in the Nordic countries—especially in Norway, due to increased timber volumes available for harvest. In a “green” scenario, the production of wood-based biofuels and new forest products increased, leading to higher wood prices from the end of the next decade. This will further decrease the production of printing paper.