Characterisation of Hydrological Drought and Implications for Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Sokoto-Rima River Basin (SRRB), Nigeria

Abstract

Hydrological drought is usually characterised by water loss over time from both underground and surface supplies. Thus for this study, the assessment of hydrological drought was carried out by employing Cumulative Rainfall/Streamflow Anomaly as preliminary tools for the presence of drought signatures while detailed characterisation was via Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The results revealed that hydrological drought was observed in all the stations; however, though in general, the stations could be classified as experiencing near normal drought conditions with mild drought signatures. The findings also revealed that the average streamflow deficit volume and durations of the hydrological drought severity were 1.780 Mm3 and 192 months, 1.444 Mm3 and 252 months, 3.148 Mm3 and 252 months, and 0.159 Mm3 and 372 months for Bakolori, Goronyo (pre dam construction era), Goronyo (post dam construction era) and Zobe stations, respectively. The results also revealed the relevance of flow duration curve and analysis of frequency of drought state transition for the development of scenario-based basin water resources management protocol. The coefficient of determination (R2) statistic of the developed regression models indicate that 73.3% and 86.5% variation in streamflow dynamics across the Basin can be explained by climate change variables. However, for sustainable management of water resources in the Basin, it is imperative that characterisation of hydrological drought and monitoring should employ robust indices which use improved monthly precipitation estimates under global warming scenario in addition to ensuring that there is a shift from reactive to proactive approach in order to combat hydrological risk. Hence, a robust framework that finds application both for planning mitigation actions which embody strategic, tactical and emergency components should be designed; to this end, analysis of persistence and recurrence of drought in time and determination of possible recurrent patterns are necessary.