The International Monetary System: New Evidence Concerning a Transition to Multipolarity

Abstract

This article focuses on the transition of the international monetary system to a multipolar structure. The international monetary system continuously evolves, reflecting developments in the world economy. The main problem of the current international monetary system is its dependence on one key currency which still remains the US dollar. The authors of this study address the issue of a transition towards a multipolar system by examining currency concentration. The primary objective of this work is to establish whether or not the current international monetary system shows signs of transitioning towards multipolarity. To achieve this, the authors have used tools measuring the level of market concentration. The change of polarity of the international monetary system is analysed with concentration ratios and the Herfindahl-Hirshmann index. The theoretical part focuses on definitions of key terms essential for this study, such as international monetary system, currency polarity, global currency, and currency concentration. For the practical part, data were sourced from the databases of global institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) and the European Central Bank (ECB). This part focuses on a period of time between 2001 and 2019, and the results indicate that the current international monetary system shows signs of transitioning towards a multipolar structure. The level of currency concentration of the key reserve currencies dropped slightly, although not enough to cause a qualitative change of the current international monetary system. This study may serve as a base for future research on this topic.