MAD and Taboo: US Expert Views on Nuclear Deterrence, Coercion, and Non-Use Norms

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Policy Analysis Pub Date : 2021-02-16 DOI:10.1093/FPA/ORAA019

Paul C. Avey

引用次数: 1

Abstract

This research note reports views on nuclear deterrence, coercion, and non-use norms from surveys of 320 current and former US national security officials and 1,303 US-based international relations scholars. It finds that both groups hold relatively optimistic views on these key issues. Majorities express confidence that nuclear weapons are useful for deterrence, but are skeptical that a nuclear arsenal can translate into coercive foreign policy success. Respondents are also confident that the nuclear taboo constrains countries from using nuclear weapons in a first strike, but the intensity varies by the country in question. Although limited, the results demonstrate overlap between academics and policymakers on key nuclear concepts. To the extent that experts hold these topline nuclear views that can influence their decision-making, teaching, and research. The results also point to a common tension in thinking about deterrence against conventional attack and norms constraining nuclear first use.

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MAD与禁忌：美国专家对核威慑、强制和不使用准则的看法

本研究报告通过对320名现任和前任美国国家安全官员和1303名美国国际关系学者的调查，报告了对核威慑、胁迫和不使用规范的看法。研究发现，这两个群体对这些关键问题都持相对乐观的看法。大多数人表示相信核武器有助于威慑，但对核武库能否转化为强制性外交政策的成功持怀疑态度。受访者还相信，核禁忌限制了各国在第一次打击中使用核武器，但强度因国家而异。尽管有限，但研究结果表明，学术界和决策者在关键核概念上存在重叠。在某种程度上，专家们持有这些可以影响他们决策、教学和研究的核心核观点。研究结果还表明，在考虑对常规攻击的威慑和限制首次使用核武器的规范时，存在着共同的紧张关系。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Foreign Policy Analysis INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Reflecting the diverse, comparative and multidisciplinary nature of the field, Foreign Policy Analysis provides an open forum for research publication that enhances the communication of concepts and ideas across theoretical, methodological, geographical and disciplinary boundaries. By emphasizing accessibility of content for scholars of all perspectives and approaches in the editorial and review process, Foreign Policy Analysis serves as a source for efforts at theoretical and methodological integration and deepening the conceptual debates throughout this rich and complex academic research tradition. Foreign policy analysis, as a field of study, is characterized by its actor-specific focus. The underlying, often implicit argument is that the source of international politics and change in international politics is human beings, acting individually or in groups. In the simplest terms, foreign policy analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes or outputs of foreign policy decision-making in either a comparative or case-specific manner.