The impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the radical behavior and armed conflict escalation risks

Abstract

The paper considers the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic to the behavior of militants of illegal armed groups and the population in the militant-controlled territories. The study was conducted on the example of the territories of self-proclaimed “L/DPR” within Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) in the period March-May 2020. Based on the analysis of social networks and media, the main narratives related to the perception of threats of epidemic were identified and analyzed. Its prevalence and dynamics among the militants and population in comparison with radical groups and population of Ukraine was analyzed. The main types of moods and emotions that were associated with the perception of epidemic were identified. The management decisions of the “L/DPR” leaders during the epidemic were analyzed. It was found that the measures of militant's “authorities” were not aimed to protecting population, but to social management - channeling aggression and propaganda discourse constructing.