The impact of economic and policy uncertainty shocks in Spain

IF 3.3 3区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Journal of Economic Policy Reform Pub Date : 2020-06-16 DOI:10.1080/17487870.2020.1760100

Juan-Francisco Albert, Nerea Gómez-Fernández

引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to quantify the impact of economic uncertainty shocks in Spain by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach with data from the first quarter of 2001 until the first quarter of 2018. Specifically, we analyze temporary and persistent economic and policy uncertainty shocks. Our results suggest that positive economic and political uncertainty shocks lead to an increase in unemployment and declines in consumption, investment, IBEX 35 index, and GDP. Based on our results, we can conclude that economic and policy uncertainty shocks have a significant negative impact on the Spanish economy.

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西班牙经济和政策不确定性冲击的影响

摘要本研究的目的是通过使用结构向量自回归（SVAR）方法，对2001年第一季度至2018年第一季度的数据，量化西班牙经济不确定性冲击的影响。具体而言，我们分析了暂时和持续的经济和政策不确定性冲击。我们的研究结果表明，积极的经济和政治不确定性冲击会导致失业率上升，消费、投资、IBEX 35指数和GDP下降。根据我们的研究结果，我们可以得出结论，经济和政策的不确定性冲击对西班牙经济产生了重大的负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Policy Reform Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Policy Reform focuses on the analysis of economic policy reform. The journal draws upon what lessons can be learned from the successes and failures of countries undertaking reforms and how existing theories can be developed to shed light on positive as well as normative aspects of the reform process. The Journal of Economic Policy Reform encourages work from economists and political economy analysts on policies to promote growth and reduce poverty, intellectual property rights, aid versus trade, debt and debt relief, taxation and social security systems, surveys of key reform issues, as well as on corruption, democracy, emerging markets and the role of multilateral institutions.