Nowcasting regional job growth using payroll processing company data

Q3 Social Sciences

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Pub Date : 2017-11-14 DOI:10.3233/JEM-170442

K. Phillips, Christopher Slijk

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Data from large payroll processing companies are a potential source of regional job growth estimates that are timelier than official government statistics. Monthly private sector employment data from ADP, LLC is available for 29 U.S. states and Washington DC about 10 days prior to official employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using a simple model with real-time data, lags of job growth and the coincident month ADP estimates, we find that for all 30 regions the information in the ADP is statistically significant in nowcasting the most recent month of job growth. Our results suggest that the ADP data are an important source of information for analysts conducting regional current analysis.

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使用工资单处理公司数据预测临近区域就业增长

来自大型薪资处理公司的数据是估算地区就业增长的一个潜在来源，比官方政府统计数据更及时。ADP, LLC提供的美国29个州和华盛顿特区的月度私营部门就业数据比美国劳工统计局的官方就业数据早10天。使用一个简单的实时数据模型，就业增长滞后和当月ADP估计，我们发现，对于所有30个地区，ADP中的信息在近距离预测最近一个月的就业增长方面具有统计意义。我们的研究结果表明，ADP数据是分析师进行区域电流分析的重要信息来源。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic and Social Measurement Social Sciences-Social Sciences (all)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (JESM) is a quarterly journal that is concerned with the investigation of all aspects of production, distribution and use of economic and other societal statistical data, and with the use of computers in that context. JESM publishes articles that consider the statistical methodology of economic and social science measurements. It is concerned with the methods and problems of data distribution, including the design and implementation of data base systems and, more generally, computer software and hardware for distributing and accessing statistical data files. Its focus on computer software also includes the valuation of algorithms and their implementation, assessing the degree to which particular algorithms may yield more or less accurate computed results. It addresses the technical and even legal problems of the collection and use of data, legislation and administrative actions affecting government produced or distributed data files, and similar topics. The journal serves as a forum for the exchange of information and views between data producers and users. In addition, it considers the various uses to which statistical data may be put, particularly to the degree that these uses illustrate or affect the properties of the data. The data considered in JESM are usually economic or social, as mentioned, but this is not a requirement; the editorial policies of JESM do not place a priori restrictions upon the data that might be considered within individual articles. Furthermore, there are no limitations concerning the source of the data.