Risk-informed evaluation of tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies

IF 2.7 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI:10.1080/23789689.2022.2127270

Zhenqiang Wang, G. Jia

{"title":"Risk-informed evaluation of tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies","authors":"Zhenqiang Wang, G. Jia","doi":"10.1080/23789689.2022.2127270","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper proposes the risk-informed evaluation of different tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies to facilitate the identification of effective strategies that are robust to uncertainties. The tsunami evacuation risk (in terms of casualty rate) is used as a quantitative performance measure to compare different mitigation strategies. An improved agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation. A simulation-based framework is used to quantify the tsunami evacuation risk, and various uncertainties associated with the evacuation are explicitly considered. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical risk factors and guide the selection of candidate mitigation strategies. The concepts of importance sampling and augmented sample-based approach are used to efficiently evaluate the evacuation risk under different candidate strategies. The risk-informed evaluation of mitigation strategies is illustrated for the tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon, where strategies such as route widening, bridge retrofit, building vertical shelter, preparedness education, and evacuation drill are compared.","PeriodicalId":45395,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2022.2127270","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper proposes the risk-informed evaluation of different tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies to facilitate the identification of effective strategies that are robust to uncertainties. The tsunami evacuation risk (in terms of casualty rate) is used as a quantitative performance measure to compare different mitigation strategies. An improved agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation. A simulation-based framework is used to quantify the tsunami evacuation risk, and various uncertainties associated with the evacuation are explicitly considered. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical risk factors and guide the selection of candidate mitigation strategies. The concepts of importance sampling and augmented sample-based approach are used to efficiently evaluate the evacuation risk under different candidate strategies. The risk-informed evaluation of mitigation strategies is illustrated for the tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon, where strategies such as route widening, bridge retrofit, building vertical shelter, preparedness education, and evacuation drill are compared.

查看原文本刊更多论文

海啸疏散风险缓解策略的风险知情评估

摘要本文提出对不同的海啸疏散风险缓解策略进行风险知情评估，以便于确定对不确定性具有稳健性的有效策略。海啸疏散风险（根据伤亡率）被用作量化绩效衡量标准，以比较不同的缓解策略。采用改进的基于agent的模型对海啸疏散过程进行了模拟。基于模拟的框架用于量化海啸疏散风险，并明确考虑了与疏散相关的各种不确定性。进行敏感性分析以确定关键风险因素，并指导候选缓解策略的选择。使用重要性抽样和基于增广样本的方法的概念来有效地评估不同候选策略下的疏散风险。针对俄勒冈州Seaside的海啸疏散，对缓解策略的风险知情评估进行了说明，对路线拓宽、桥梁改造、建造垂直避难所、准备教育和疏散演习等策略进行了比较。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure ENGINEERING, CIVIL-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

10.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on the sustainable development of resilient communities. Sustainability is defined in relation to the ability of infrastructure to address the needs of the present without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs. Resilience is considered in relation to both natural hazards (like earthquakes, tsunami, hurricanes, cyclones, tornado, flooding and drought) and anthropogenic hazards (like human errors and malevolent attacks.) Resilience is taken to depend both on the performance of the built and modified natural environment and on the contextual characteristics of social, economic and political institutions. Sustainability and resilience are considered both for physical and non-physical infrastructure.