Impacts of sampling frequency on the estimation accuracy of exceedance for suspended solids and nitrates in streams in small to medium-sized watersheds

Abstract

Data from a 389 km² watershed and one of its 14.5 km² subbasins were used to assess the effects of sampling frequency on the estimation accuracy of the exceedance frequency (EF) for suspended solids and nitrate-nitrogen in streams. Values of EF estimated from 17 subsampling schemes were compared with the actual EF (EF_a) at different threshold concentrations. The coefficient of variation and relative bias were used to measure the estimation accuracy. Results indicated that the EF_a of the larger watershed was much lower than that of the smaller watershed for both suspended solids and nitrate-nitrogen. We also found that EF_a can be modeled as an exponential function of the threshold concentration. For the EF estimations, the coefficient of variation decreased with increasing sampling frequency and increasing EF_a. The relative bias tended to be negative when EF_a was low or the threshold concentration was high, reaching -75% in some cases. This result implies that reported EF values based on low-frequency data could be severely underestimated due to the high possibility of missing large events. However, there were also cases with positive relative bias, implying overestimation of EF due to over representation of large events. These findings can be used to determine adequate sampling frequencies for water-quality parameters, avoiding common observed biases (mostly negative) in the estimation of EF for extreme pollution events.