Sovereign Risk Ratings in Latin America: Measures of Economic Conditions or Policy Paradigm Compliance?

Q3 Arts and Humanities

Journal of Global South Studies Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.1353/gss.2021.0032

Diogo Pinheiro

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Abstract

Abstract:The objective of this paper is to understand what sovereign and country risk ratings actually measure. These ratings were created by key financial agencies to serve as a way of guiding a significant part of investment in developing nations. Theoretically, this project deals with one of the key debates in the social sciences: Are markets rational and efficient, or does uncertainty lead to the adoption of certain measures and policies because they are culturally and politically legitimate? To answer this question, this paper employs quantitative analyses, looking at both the factors that lead a country to be rated and what drives the ratings themselves. More specifically, I use different statistical techniques to show that the risk ratings are not driven solely by market factors but rather measure compliance with the existing neoliberal paradigm, such as financial deregulation and privatization. They are measures of compliance with the existing policy paradigm and fail to adequately capture investment risk. As such, they play a key role in the adoption of neoliberal policies even in the face of financial crises worldwide, especially in the Global South, as is the case with Latin America studied here.

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拉丁美洲的主权风险评级:衡量经济状况还是政策范式遵从?

摘要:本文的目的是了解主权和国家风险评级实际衡量的是什么。这些评级是由主要金融机构创建的，作为指导发展中国家大部分投资的一种方式。从理论上讲，该项目涉及社会科学中的一个关键辩论:市场是理性和有效的，还是不确定性导致采取某些措施和政策，因为它们在文化和政治上是合法的?为了回答这个问题，本文采用了定量分析，研究了导致一个国家被评级的因素和驱动评级本身的因素。更具体地说，我使用不同的统计技术来表明，风险评级并非完全由市场因素驱动，而是衡量对现有新自由主义范式的遵从，例如金融放松管制和私有化。它们是遵守现有政策范例的措施，不能充分捕捉投资风险。因此，他们在新自由主义政策的采纳上发挥了关键作用，即使面对全球金融危机，特别是在全球南方，就像这里研究的拉丁美洲的情况一样。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Global South Studies Arts and Humanities-History

CiteScore

0.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Global South Studies focuses on the countries and peoples of the "global south," including those in Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and parts of Oceania. The global south is not, however, synonymous with geographic locations in the southern hemisphere. That is, some of these countries and peoples are situated in the northern hemisphere. The journal solicits high-quality, academic papers on a broad range of issues and topics affecting these countries and peoples. Such papers may address questions involving politics, history, economics, culture, social organization, legal systems, agriculture, the environment, global institutions and systems, justice, and more. The journal aims to promote a wider and better understanding of our world and its peoples. The Journal of Global South Studies is the official journal of the Association of Global South Studies.