Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Abstract

Abstract. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the main sources of sub-seasonal atmospheric predictability in the tropical region. The MJO affects precipitation over highly populated areas, especially around southern India. Therefore, predicting its phase and intensity is important as it has a high societal impact. Indices of the MJO can be derived from the first principal components of zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the tropics (RMM1 and RMM2 indices). The amplitude and phase of the MJO are derived from those indices. Our goal is to forecast these two indices on a sub-seasonal timescale. This study aims to provide an ensemble forecast of MJO indices from analogs of the atmospheric circulation, computed from the geopotential at 500 hPa (Z500) by using a stochastic weather generator (SWG). We generate an ensemble of 100 members for the MJO amplitude for sub-seasonal lead times (from 2 to 4 weeks). Then we evaluate the skill of the ensemble forecast and the ensemble mean using probabilistic scores and deterministic skill scores. According to score-based criteria, we find that a reasonable forecast of the MJO index could be achieved within 40 d lead times for the different seasons. We compare our SWG forecast with other forecasts of the MJO. The comparison shows that the SWG forecast has skill compared to ECMWF forecasts for lead times above 20 d and better skill compared to machine learning forecasts for small lead times.