Naked statistical evidence and incentives for lawful conduct

Abstract

The problem of ‘naked statistical evidence’ is one of the most debated issues in evidence theory. Most evidence scholars agree that it is deeply problematic to base a verdict on naked statistical evidence, but they disagree on why it is problematic, and point to different characteristics of naked statistical evidence as the root of the problem. In this article, the author discusses the merits of different solutions to the problem of naked statistical evidence, and argues for the incentive-solution: verdicts based on naked statistical evidence are unacceptable as they do not contribute in a positive way to the incentive structure for lawful behaviour.