How Serious is India’s Nonperforming Assets Crisis? A Structural Satellite Version of the Financial-Macroeconometric Model

IF 2.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Nithin Mani, Alok Kumar Mishra, Jijin Pandikasala
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Abstract

This paper develops a Structural Satellite version of the Financial-Macroeconometric Model of India (SSFMMI) to examine whether the surge in Nonperforming Assets (NPAs) in Indian Public Sector Banks (PSUs) post-2015 is due to macroeconomic shocks or better classification of loans and cleaning of bank balance sheets. Specifically, the paper analyses the impact of a rainfall shock, domestic food price shock, world oil price shock, fiscal shock, and monetary shock using counterfactual policy simulations and an out-of-sample forecasting framework to validate the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on NPA levels. The paper's outcomes suggest that the late surges in NPAs are not due to macroeconomic shocks and, therefore, that Indian banks are resilient to such shocks. However, the study reveals that the rise in domestic fuel prices and world food prices can cause a surge in NPAs levels.

Abstract Image

印度不良资产危机有多严重?金融宏观计量经济模型的结构卫星版本
本文开发了印度金融宏观计量经济模型(SSFMMI)的结构卫星版本,以研究2015年后印度公共部门银行(psu)不良资产(NPAs)的激增是由于宏观经济冲击还是由于更好的贷款分类和银行资产负债表的清理。具体而言,本文分析了降雨冲击、国内食品价格冲击、世界石油价格冲击、财政冲击和货币冲击的影响,使用反事实政策模拟和样本外预测框架来验证这些宏观经济冲击对NPA水平的影响。该论文的结果表明,不良资产的后期激增不是由于宏观经济冲击,因此,印度银行对此类冲击具有弹性。然而,该研究表明,国内燃料价格和世界粮食价格的上涨可能导致国家行动纲领水平激增。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: The current remarkable growth in the Asia-Pacific financial markets is certain to continue. These markets are expected to play a further important role in the world capital markets for investment and risk management. In accordance with this development, Asia-Pacific Financial Markets (formerly Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets), the official journal of the Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering (JAFEE), is expected to provide an international forum for researchers and practitioners in academia, industry, and government, who engage in empirical and/or theoretical research into the financial markets. We invite submission of quality papers on all aspects of finance and financial engineering. Here we interpret the term ''financial engineering'' broadly enough to cover such topics as financial time series, portfolio analysis, global asset allocation, trading strategy for investment, optimization methods, macro monetary economic analysis and pricing models for various financial assets including derivatives We stress that purely theoretical papers, as well as empirical studies that use Asia-Pacific market data, are welcome. Officially cited as: Asia-Pac Financ Markets
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