{"title":"Estimating the Asteroid’s Impact Risk under Significant Nonlinearity in the Orbit Determination Problem","authors":"A. P. Baturin","doi":"10.1134/S0038094623030012","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>A method has been developed for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact on the Earth. The method is based on the detection of impact orbit tubes in the initial confidence region, taking into account the nonlinearity in the problem of orbit determination. The method consists in sequential iteration of level surfaces of the minimized function and conditionally minimizing the distance from the asteroid to the Earth on them in some considered approach of the asteroid to the Earth. An approximate method has been developed for calculating the confidence level at any point in the initial region with a noticeable nonlinearity in the orbit determination problem. The impact risk is estimated by applying this method to the identified tube of impact orbits. The method has been tested for a number of potentially dangerous asteroids in their expected approaches to Earth.</p>","PeriodicalId":778,"journal":{"name":"Solar System Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar System Research","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0038094623030012","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A method has been developed for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact on the Earth. The method is based on the detection of impact orbit tubes in the initial confidence region, taking into account the nonlinearity in the problem of orbit determination. The method consists in sequential iteration of level surfaces of the minimized function and conditionally minimizing the distance from the asteroid to the Earth on them in some considered approach of the asteroid to the Earth. An approximate method has been developed for calculating the confidence level at any point in the initial region with a noticeable nonlinearity in the orbit determination problem. The impact risk is estimated by applying this method to the identified tube of impact orbits. The method has been tested for a number of potentially dangerous asteroids in their expected approaches to Earth.
期刊介绍：
Solar System Research publishes articles concerning the bodies of the Solar System, i.e., planets and their satellites, asteroids, comets, meteoric substances, and cosmic dust. The articles consider physics, dynamics and composition of these bodies, and techniques of their exploration. The journal addresses the problems of comparative planetology, physics of the planetary atmospheres and interiors, cosmochemistry, as well as planetary plasma environment and heliosphere, specifically those related to solar-planetary interactions. Attention is paid to studies of exoplanets and complex problems of the origin and evolution of planetary systems including the solar system, based on the results of astronomical observations, laboratory studies of meteorites, relevant theoretical approaches and mathematical modeling. Alongside with the original results of experimental and theoretical studies, the journal publishes scientific reviews in the field of planetary exploration, and notes on observational results.
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