Using mathematical modelling to investigate the effect of the sexual behaviour of asymptomatic individuals and vector control measures on Zika

Q3 Mathematics

Letters in Biomathematics Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI:10.1080/23737867.2019.1624631

Selenne Bañuelos, Marco V. Martinez, C. Mitchell, Alicia Prieto-Langarica

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引用次数: 9

Abstract

Zika is a vector borne disease for which the latest world wide outbreak inspired a renewed interest in epidemiological modelling of vector borne diseases. However, due to the possibility of sexual transmission and the high proportion of asymptomatic individuals, models for similar diseases, such as dengue or chikungunya, are no longer applicable. It is of interest to study how the existence and behaviour of asymptomatic individuals and the potential of them transmitting the disease affect the overall epidemic dynamics. The model presented here aims to be as simple as possible, while at the same time taking into account the features that make Zika unique among other vector borne diseases. This model allows for the exploration of sexual transmission and how the sexual behaviour of asymptomatic individuals may affect the spread of the disease. In addition, the model was used to determine the basic reproductive number, with and without the effect of sexual transmission as well as to implement a simple version of control using Wolbachia bacterium.

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利用数学模型调查无症状个体的性行为和媒介控制措施对寨卡病毒的影响

寨卡是一种病媒传播疾病，最近在世界范围内的暴发激发了人们对病媒传播疾病流行病学建模的新兴趣。然而，由于性传播的可能性和无症状个体的高比例，登革热或基孔肯雅热等类似疾病的模型不再适用。研究无症状个体的存在和行为以及他们传播疾病的可能性如何影响整体流行动态是有意义的。这里提出的模型旨在尽可能简单，同时考虑到使寨卡病毒在其他媒介传播疾病中独特的特征。该模型允许探索性传播以及无症状个体的性行为如何影响疾病的传播。此外，该模型还用于确定有和没有性传播影响的基本繁殖数，以及使用沃尔巴克氏菌实施简单版本的控制。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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