Long-term effects of sectarian politics: evidence from Lebanon

IF 3.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI:10.1093/ser/mwad004

Thomas J. Emery, R. Spruk

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We examine the effect of sectarian politics in the presence of weak state capacity on long-term economic growth. To this end, we exploit the 1956 civil uprising between Maronite Christian and Sunni Muslim factions in Lebanon to estimate the impact of sectarian political tensions on long-term growth. To isolate the impact of the uprising, we use synthetic control estimator and match Lebanon’s pre-1956 growth and development trajectory with the rest of the world where such uprising did not occur, and estimate the counterfactual growth trajectory in the hypothetical absence of the sectarian conflict. Our evidence indicates large and pervasive negative growth effects of factionalism. Our estimates imply that Lebanon’s per capita income down to the present day is on average 57% lower than that of its pre-1956 synthetic control group without sectarian clashes, and does not seem to be driven by preexisting or subsequent trends and shocks. The negative long-term growth effect of sectarian conflict is robust to a battery of spatial and temporal placebo checks, choice of samples and is not sensitive to the composition of control groups.

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宗派政治的长期影响:来自黎巴嫩的证据

我们研究了在国家能力薄弱的情况下，宗派政治对长期经济增长的影响。为此，我们利用1956年黎巴嫩马龙派基督徒和逊尼派穆斯林派系之间的内乱来估计宗派政治紧张局势对长期增长的影响。为了隔离起义的影响，我们使用综合控制估计量，将黎巴嫩1956年前的增长和发展轨迹与没有发生起义的世界其他地区相匹配，并在假设没有教派冲突的情况下估计反实际增长轨迹。我们的证据表明，派系斗争产生了广泛而普遍的负增长影响。我们的估计表明，黎巴嫩迄今为止的人均收入平均比1956年前没有教派冲突的综合控制集团低57%，而且似乎不是由先前或随后的趋势和冲击所驱动的。教派冲突的负长期增长效应对一系列空间和时间安慰剂检查、样本选择是强有力的，并且对对照组的组成不敏感。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Socio-Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Originating in the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics (SASE), Socio-Economic Review (SER) is part of a broader movement in the social sciences for the rediscovery of the socio-political foundations of the economy. Devoted to the advancement of socio-economics, it deals with the analytical, political and moral questions arising at the intersection between economy and society. Articles in SER explore how the economy is or should be governed by social relations, institutional rules, political decisions, and cultural values. They also consider how the economy in turn affects the society of which it is part, for example by breaking up old institutional forms and giving rise to new ones. The domain of the journal is deliberately broadly conceived, so new variations to its general theme may be discovered and editors can learn from the papers that readers submit. To enhance international dialogue, Socio-Economic Review accepts the submission of translated articles that are simultaneously published in a language other than English. In pursuit of its program, SER is eager to promote interdisciplinary dialogue between sociology, economics, political science and moral philosophy, through both empirical and theoretical work. Empirical papers may be qualitative as well as quantitative, and theoretical papers will not be confined to deductive model-building. Papers suggestive of more generalizable insights into the economy as a domain of social action will be preferred over narrowly specialized work. While firmly committed to the highest standards of scholarly excellence, Socio-Economic Review encourages discussion of the practical and ethical dimensions of economic action, with the intention to contribute to both the advancement of social science and the building of a good economy in a good society.