The Predictive Value of the Central Eight Criminogenic Risk Factors: A Multi-Group Comparison of Dually Diagnosed Violent Offenders with other Subgroups of Violent Offenders

Abstract

A dual diagnosis (substance related disorder combined with other clinical and/or personality disorders) is associated with a broad range of adverse outcomes, such as higher suicide risks and criminality. The present study is the first large-scale study aimed at comparing adult violent offenders with a Dual Diagnosis (DD-group, n=710)with other subgroups of adult violent offenders: Offenders without a clinical or personality disorder (No disorders group, n=142); offenders being diagnosed with only Substance Use Disorders (SUD-group, n=120); offenders with other clinical (SUDs excluded) and/or personality disorders (Other disorders group, n=499). Seven of the central eight criminogenic risk factors (categorized in the big and moderate three criminogenic risk factors) described in General Personality and Cognitive Social Learning (GPCSL) theories were included in a multi-group path analysis as predictors of general recidivism and dropout. DD-offenders had the highest recidivism and dropout rates. A few number of the central eight risk factors were found predictive of general recidivism and dropout within each subgroup. In DD-offenders the only risk factor relevant for recidivism was a history of antisocial/criminal behavior.