A. Kaminskyi, N. Versal, O. Petrovskyi, N. Prykaziuk
{"title":"Dynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine","authors":"A. Kaminskyi, N. Versal, O. Petrovskyi, N. Prykaziuk","doi":"10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.","PeriodicalId":53480,"journal":{"name":"Banks and Bank Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Banks and Bank Systems","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.
期刊介绍:
The journal focuses on the results of scientific researches on monetary policy issues in different countries and regions all over the world. It also analyzes the activities of international financial organizations, central banks, and bank institutions. Key topics: -Monetary Policy in Different Countries and Regions; -Monetary and Payment Systems; -International Financial Organizations and Institutions; -Monetary Policy of Central Banks; -Organizational Structure, Functions and Activities of Central Banks; -State Policy and Regulation of Banking; -Bank Competitiveness; -Banks at the Financial Markets; -Bank Associations and Conglomerates; -International Payment Systems; -Investment Banking; -Financial Risks and Risk Management in Banks; -Capital and Ownership Structure, Bankruptcy and Liquidation, Mergers and Acquisitions of Banks; -Corporate Governance and Goodwill; -Personnel Management in Banks; -Econometric, Statistical Methods; Econometric Modeling of Bank Activities; -Bank Ratings.