Modelling the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the labour market in Czechia

Q1 Social Sciences

Central European Journal of Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-07-09 DOI:10.2478/cejpp-2021-0006

M. Fatun, M. Pazour

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Abstract This article describes an original model developed in the Technology Centre CAS for the estimation of the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the labour market in Czechia. On the contrary to the previous estimates, this model is based on the comparison of projected future technical capabilities of AI with a mix of capabilities needed in different job categories. Both the importance and the level of capabilities are taken into account in order to assess the impact of AI on jobs in three different time horizons. Based on the model calculations, it can be expected that on the five-year horizon the AI will be able to replace more than 50% of the required capabilities in 11 % of the occupations. On the thirty-year horizon, AI can replace over 50% of capabilities in the vast majority of the current professions. At the same time, new professions will continuously emerge, though they will place different demands on their performers and will require different skills and capabilities in comparison to current professions. The model and its results may be effectively used for efficient adaptation of education, lifelong learning and retraining to the changing nature of work, and related new demand for workers’ capabilities.

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模拟人工智能对捷克劳动力市场的影响

本文描述了技术中心CAS开发的一个原始模型，用于估计人工智能(AI)对捷克劳动力市场的影响。与以前的估计相反，这个模型是基于对人工智能未来技术能力的预测与不同工作类别所需的混合能力的比较。为了评估人工智能在三个不同时间范围内对工作的影响，我们考虑了能力的重要性和水平。根据模型计算，可以预计，在5年的时间里，人工智能将能够在11%的职业中取代50%以上的所需能力。在未来30年的时间里，人工智能可以取代目前绝大多数职业中50%以上的能力。与此同时，新的职业将不断出现，尽管它们将对表演者提出不同的要求，并且与现有的职业相比，需要不同的技能和能力。该模型及其结果可以有效地用于有效地适应教育、终身学习和再培训，以适应不断变化的工作性质，以及对工人能力的相关新需求。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Central European Journal of Public Policy Social Sciences-Law

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

37 weeks

期刊介绍： The Central European Journal of Public Policy (CEJPP) is an open-access, multidisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with primary focus upon analytical, theoretical and methodological articles in the field of public policy. The journal does not have article processing charges (APCs) nor article submission charges. The aim of the CEJPP is to provide academic scholars and professionals in different policy fields with the latest theoretical and methodological advancements in public policy supported by sound empirical research. The CEJPP addresses all topics of public policy including social services and healthcare, environmental protection, education, labour market, immigration, security, public financing and budgeting, administrative reform, performance measurements, governance and others. It attempts to find a balance between description, explanation and evaluation of public policies and encourages a wide range of social science approaches, both qualitative and quantitative. Although the journal focuses primarily upon Central Europe, relevant contributions from other geographical areas are also welcomed in order to enhance public policy research in Central Europe.