Spatial and temporal features and factors of the distribution of the population aged from 0 to 14 years in China

Abstract

The economic and geographical analysis of spatial and temporal trends in the distribution of the population aged from 0 to 14 years by provinces was carried out at the article based on China’s official demographic statistics for 2000–2020. Using the methods of statistical and correlation analysis, linear and geographically weighted regression, spatial analysis of demographic data, comparative geographic method, typographer’s method, geographic systematisation and cartographic method, the authors obtained a number of new scientific results. In the course of the analysis of the population of China at the age from 0 to 14 years, a reduction trend and territorial differentiation were established, which made it possible to distinguish three zones on the territory of the country – eastern with high population, western and central-eastern with medium abundance and meridional central with low abundance, with a predominance of the second andthird zones in the structure. On the example of selected socio-economic indicators, it was determined that the size of the GDP and the number of medical institutions affect the size of population aged from 0 to 14 years, while the annual income per capita has a weak effect. Calculation and visualisation of geographically weighted regression at the provincial level confirmed these results. An analysis of the proportion of the population aged from 0 to 14 years indicates a significant reduction (up to 17.8 %), and the heterogeneity of space with the allocation of the western zone with the highest values and the northeastern zone with the lowest values. According to the nature of the dynamics of the size of population aged from 0 to 14 years, the provinces of China are divided into two types – provinces with population growth and provinces with population decrease, with a prevalence of the provinces of second type (70.6 %). The use of the center-periphery approach in the final geographical systematisation makes it possible to single out three types of provinces in China – central, buffer and peripheral. The revealed territorial heterogeneity and a significant share in the structure of provinces of the peripheral type (32.4 %) serve as a scientific justification for the need to use a geospatial approach in developing the directions of state demographic policy to ensure China’s sustainable economic growth.