Simulation of production processes and associated costs in mining using the Monte Carlo method

IF 0.9 4区 材料科学 Q3 Materials Science
M. Mathey
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The application of the Monte Carlo technique to production planning and everyday economic decisionmaking in mine production management is demonstrated. The logic is detailed using an example of underground production with continuous miners (CMs) and truck haulage. It is argued that availability of equipment and personnel are the predominant variables influencing mine output and productivity and that those availabilities may be well represented by binomial probability distributions. The probabilistic model is implemented in a standard Excel® spreadsheet with Palisade's @Risk add-on to facilitate simulations. Starting from model calibration against data obtained from a mine's annual reports, some general interdependencies of availability, utilization, productivity, and costs of production processes are outlined. Finally, several possible options and their consequences as regards production improvements are explored.
使用蒙特卡罗方法模拟采矿生产过程和相关成本
论证了蒙特卡洛技术在矿山生产管理中的生产计划和日常经济决策中的应用。以连续采矿机(CM)和卡车运输的地下生产为例详细说明了逻辑。有人认为,设备和人员的可用性是影响矿山产量和生产力的主要变量,这些可用性可以用二项式概率分布很好地表示。概率模型在标准Excel®电子表格中实现,带有Palisade的@Risk插件,以便于模拟。从根据矿山年度报告中获得的数据进行模型校准开始,概述了生产过程的可用性、利用率、生产力和成本的一些一般相互依存关系。最后,探讨了生产改进方面的几种可能选择及其后果。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
11.10%
发文量
61
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal serves as a medium for the publication of high quality scientific papers. This requires that the papers that are submitted for publication are properly and fairly refereed and edited. This process will maintain the high quality of the presentation of the paper and ensure that the technical content is in line with the accepted norms of scientific integrity.
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