Forecasting COVID-19 in Morocco

Abstract

The COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. As of April 26, 2020, this pandemic has caused in Morocco more than 4065 confirmed infections and more than 161 reported deaths. To mitigate this epidemic threat and act quickly, it is very important to monitor and analyze changing trends and predict what might happen in the future. The main objective of this paper is to develop a successful prediction. We used in this study at the end of each week the TBATS model to forecast confirmed cases. This model is calculated on the basis of the daily historical data. From the results obtained we can conclude that the predictions obtained are close to reality and for the peak of this epidemic is not yet identified. The obtained results shows that this epidemics will continue to grow. For our forecast from 04/27/2020 to 05/03/2020 we estimate that the number of affected cases will achieve 4367 cases.