A Modified Stochastic Model for Rainfall Prediction Using Fuzzy Aquila Optimization

Abstract

In recent years, rainfall prediction has received major attention in research areas because of its demanding applications in pollution control management and flood control management. Despite having numerous learning-based approaches to calculate future rainfall trends, it remains inefficient to predict rainfall occurrences by learning linear and nonlinear data patterns of historical weather information (i.e., exact prediction value is complicated to be predicted). These complications are addressed with the evolution of stochastic models which have a greater ability to minimize prediction bias and represent long-term weather variability. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel modified stochastic fuzzy Aquila (MSFA) algorithm to make precise predictions regarding future trends by evaluating rainfall time series data. The proposed MSFA algorithm is applied in rainfall prediction applications in evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed stochastic model. Here, 10 features of the open weather dataset collected from Tamil Nadu are provided as input for the proposed rainfall prediction design. The data inconsistencies such as undesirable format and missing values are structured using preprocessing procedures, namely data arrangement, null value removal, and data partitioning. The preprocessed data are fed into the proposed MSFA algorithm which learns the data features more precisely and predicts the probable occurrence of rainfall. To evaluate the performances of the proposed MSFA algorithm, the metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination, root mean squared logarithmic error (RMSLE), and root mean square error (RMSE) are analyzed. The experimental results illustrate that the proposed MSFA algorithm achieves superior performance in terms of all metrics.