Coherent Bimodal Events in Ensemble Forecasts of 2-m Temperature

Abstract

A previous study has shown that a large portion of subseasonal-to-seasonal European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts for 2-meter temperature exhibit properties of univariate bimodality, in some locations occurring in over 30% of forecasts. This study introduces a novel methodology to identify ‘bimodal events’, meteorological events which trigger the development of spatially and temporally correlated bimodality in forecasts. Understanding such events not only provides insight into the dynamics of the meteorological phenomena causing bimodal events, but also indicates when Gaussian interpretations of forecasts are detrimental. The methodology that is developed allows one to systematically characterize the spatial and temporal scales of the derived bimodal events, and thus uncover the flow states that lead to them. Three distinct regions that exhibit high occurrence rates of bimodality are studied: one in South America, one in the Southern Ocean, and one in the North Atlantic. It is found that bimodal events in each region appear to be triggered by synoptic processes interacting with geographically specific processes: in South America bimodality is often related to Andes blocking events, in the Southern Ocean bimodality is often related to an atmospheric Rossby wave interacting with sea ice, and in the North Atlantic bimodality is often connected to the displacement of a persistent subtropical high. This common pattern of large-scale circulation anomalies interacting with local boundary conditions suggests that any deeper dynamical understanding of these events should incorporate such interactions.