A vector-autoregression-intervention analysis of PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counterterrorism

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of Turkey’s repressive and conciliatory counterterrorism (CT) policies on moderate and extremist members of the terrorist group, Partiye Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK) in the period 1999–2007, using vector autoregression-intervention analysis. By utilising the data about Turkey’s CT against PKK terrorism, the study finds evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT against extremists increases their involvement in terrorist activity, while repression against moderates decreases their involvement in terrorist activity. The model contributes to the current knowledge base of counterterrorism by providing empirical evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT can increase or decrease terrorism, depending on the target population’s degree of solidarity with a terrorist movement.