Has urbanization slowed down in Pakistan?

IF 1.5 4区社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Asian Population Studies Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI:10.1080/17441730.2022.2156508

G. Arif, M. Sadiq, Z. Sathar, Leiwen Jiang, S. Hussain

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT Pakistan is the seventh largest contributor to world urban growth and exhibits high levels of urbanization. The recent 2017 Population Census results show a slowing of urban growth. We question whether this apparent slowdown reflects lowering of the rate of natural increase and migration, or is the result of a disconnect between the administrative definition of urban and actual reality. Alternative estimates presented here suggest that the 2017 Census may have underestimated urbanization by as much as 22.2 per cent, that is, the actual level of urbanization may be 44.5 per cent compared to 36.4 per cent reported in the census. We decompose the urban growth to assess the relative impact of natural increase, reclassification and migration and we utilize alternative methods of classification of urban areas to assess urbanization levels for Pakistan and its provinces. Continuing high levels of urban fertility and natural increase are the major contributors to urban growth. Internal migration is the next biggest contributor, however directions of movements may be changing. These findings have implications for the forthcoming 2022 census to improve the enumeration of urban areas and for urban planning to take advantage of the beneficial effects of building connectivity between small, medium, and large cities.

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巴基斯坦的城市化速度放缓了吗?

巴基斯坦是世界第七大城市增长贡献者，城市化水平很高。最近的2017年人口普查结果显示，城市增长放缓。我们质疑这种明显的放缓是否反映了自然增长率和移民率的下降，或者是城市的行政定义与实际情况脱节的结果。本文提出的另一种估计表明，2017年人口普查可能低估了城市化22.2%，也就是说，实际城市化水平可能为44.5%，而人口普查中报告的城市化水平为36.4%。我们分解城市增长来评估自然增长、重新分类和移民的相对影响，我们利用城市地区分类的替代方法来评估巴基斯坦及其各省的城市化水平。持续高水平的城市生育率和自然增长是城市增长的主要因素。国内移民是第二大因素，不过移民的方向可能正在改变。这些发现对即将到来的2022年人口普查具有重要意义，有助于改善城市地区的人口普查，并有助于城市规划利用在中小城市和大城市之间建立互联互通的有益影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asian Population Studies DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The first international population journal to focus exclusively on population issues in Asia, Asian Population Studies publishes original research on matters related to population in this large, complex and rapidly changing region, and welcomes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research, and contributions to methodology.