Future changes in typhoons and storm surges along the Pacific coast in Japan: proposal of an empirical pseudo-global-warming downscaling

IF 1.9 3区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Coastal Engineering Journal Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/21664250.2021.2002060

M. Toyoda, J. Yoshino, Tomonao Kobayashi

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this study, dynamical pseudo-global-warming downscaling (d-PGWD) was performed with a high-resolution typhoon model for 49 typhoons that made landfall in Japan between 2000 and 2017. It was revealed that the averaged typhoon intensity under future climatic conditions tends to increase at both the peak and landfall times as a result of global warming (averaged central pressures of −45.7 and −5.5 hPa at peak and landfall, respectively). Furthermore, detailed analyses of the time of landfall revealed significant differences in the degree of future changes in typhoon intensity based on both the elapsed time from the genesis to landfall (Tl ) and the radius of maximum wind speed (Rml ) at the time of landfall. Considering the relationships of Tl and Rml between present and future climates, statistical formulas for future changes in the central pressure and Rml were derived as an empirical PGWD (e-PGWD) method. The validity of this method was confirmed via comparison with d-PGWD results. It is expected that disaster prevention and mitigation measures for future typhoons and coastal disasters in individual regions and ports can be developed by revising storm surge hazard maps using the proposed e-PGWD approach.

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日本太平洋沿岸台风和风暴潮的未来变化:经验伪全球变暖缩减尺度的建议

本研究利用高分辨率台风模型对2000 - 2017年在日本登陆的49个台风进行了动态伪全球变暖降尺度(d-PGWD)分析。结果表明，在未来气候条件下，由于全球变暖，台风的平均强度在峰值和登陆时间都有增加的趋势(峰值和登陆时的平均中心气压分别为- 45.7和- 5.5 hPa)。此外，对台风登陆时间的详细分析显示，从台风发生到登陆所经过的时间(Tl)和登陆时最大风速半径(Rml)在未来台风强度变化程度上存在显著差异。考虑到现在和未来气候之间Tl和Rml的关系，采用经验PGWD (e-PGWD)方法推导了未来中心压力和Rml变化的统计公式。通过与d-PGWD结果的比较，证实了该方法的有效性。预期可以利用拟议的e-PGWD方法，修订风暴潮危险图，为个别地区和港口未来的台风和沿海灾害制定防灾和减灾措施。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering Journal 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

4.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering Journal is a peer-reviewed medium for the publication of research achievements and engineering practices in the fields of coastal, harbor and offshore engineering. The CEJ editors welcome original papers and comprehensive reviews on waves and currents, sediment motion and morphodynamics, as well as on structures and facilities. Reports on conceptual developments and predictive methods of environmental processes are also published. Topics also include hard and soft technologies related to coastal zone development, shore protection, and prevention or mitigation of coastal disasters. The journal is intended to cover not only fundamental studies on analytical models, numerical computation and laboratory experiments, but also results of field measurements and case studies of real projects.