A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

Abstract

A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution. Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling, incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation. This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model. The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy, economic, and technical factors. This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition. It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems. Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review. Finally, important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed, and future research directions are proposed.