Yunish Khan, Vinod Kumar, P. Setiya, Anurag Satpathi
{"title":"Comparison of phenological weather indices based statistical, machine learning and hybrid models for soybean yield forecasting in Uttarakhand","authors":"Yunish Khan, Vinod Kumar, P. Setiya, Anurag Satpathi","doi":"10.54386/jam.v25i3.2232","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Early information exchange regarding predicted crop production could play a role in lowering the danger of food insecurity. In this study total six multivariate models were developed using past time series yield data and weather indices viz. SMLR, PCA-SMLR, ANN, PCA-ANN, SMLR-ANN and PCA-SMLR-ANN for three major soybean producing districts of Uttarakhand viz. Almora, Udham Singh Nagar and Uttarkashi. Further analysis was done by fixing 80% of the data for calibration and the remaining dataset for validation to predict soybean yield. Phenology wise average values were computed using the daily weather data. These average values are subsequently employed in the computation of both weighted and unweighted weather indices. The PCA-SMLR-ANN, SMLR-ANN and PCA-ANN models were found to be the best soybean yield predictor model for Almora, Udham Singh Nagar and Uttarkashi districts, respectively. The overall ranking based on the performances of the models for all locations can be given as: SMLR-ANN > PCA-ANN > PCA-SMLR-ANN ≈ ANN > PCA-SMLR > SMLR. The study results indicated that hybrid models outperformed the individual models well for all the study regions.","PeriodicalId":56127,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agrometeorology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Agrometeorology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v25i3.2232","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Early information exchange regarding predicted crop production could play a role in lowering the danger of food insecurity. In this study total six multivariate models were developed using past time series yield data and weather indices viz. SMLR, PCA-SMLR, ANN, PCA-ANN, SMLR-ANN and PCA-SMLR-ANN for three major soybean producing districts of Uttarakhand viz. Almora, Udham Singh Nagar and Uttarkashi. Further analysis was done by fixing 80% of the data for calibration and the remaining dataset for validation to predict soybean yield. Phenology wise average values were computed using the daily weather data. These average values are subsequently employed in the computation of both weighted and unweighted weather indices. The PCA-SMLR-ANN, SMLR-ANN and PCA-ANN models were found to be the best soybean yield predictor model for Almora, Udham Singh Nagar and Uttarkashi districts, respectively. The overall ranking based on the performances of the models for all locations can be given as: SMLR-ANN > PCA-ANN > PCA-SMLR-ANN ≈ ANN > PCA-SMLR > SMLR. The study results indicated that hybrid models outperformed the individual models well for all the study regions.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Agrometeorology (ISSN 0972-1665) , is a quarterly publication of Association of Agrometeorologists appearing in March, June, September and December. Since its beginning in 1999 till 2016, it was a half yearly publication appearing in June and December. In addition to regular issues, Association also brings out the special issues of the journal covering selected papers presented in seminar symposia organized by the Association.