A Quick Guide to Somalia in 2026: Business as Usual

Q2 Arts and Humanities

Journal of the Middle East and Africa Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI:10.1080/21520844.2021.1957347

A. Hills

引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT The political and developmental challenges confronting Somalia are entrenched and unlikely to change significantly over the next five years. This is notably so for the transfer of security and policing responsibilities from international organizations to Somali authorities. Consequently, seeking to distinguish between Somalia’s current and future challenges is an artificial exercise that has more to do with the aspirations of the international community than with local realities. Change will undoubtedly occur, but while the strategic issues dominating the international agenda in 2026 will be different from those prioritized in 2021, the underlying trends and issues influencing the goals and behavior of Somalia’s powerbrokers and significant security actors will be much the same as they are today: the security marketplace will continue to reflect the primacy of clan-based calculations and internecine rivalries. In other words, it will be business as usual.

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2026年索马里快速指南:一切如常

摘要索马里面临的政治和发展挑战根深蒂固，在未来五年内不太可能发生重大变化。国际组织向索马里当局移交安全和治安责任的情况尤其如此。因此，试图区分索马里当前和未来的挑战是一种人为的做法，更多地与国际社会的愿望有关，而不是与当地的现实有关。变革无疑会发生，但尽管2026年主导国际议程的战略问题将与2021年的优先事项有所不同，影响索马里权力掮客和重要安全行为者目标和行为的潜在趋势和问题将与今天大致相同：安全市场将继续反映出基于部族的计算和自相残杀的首要地位。换句话说，一切如常。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of the Middle East and Africa Arts and Humanities-History

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of the Middle East and Africa, the flagship publication of the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA), is the first peer-reviewed academic journal to include both the entire continent of Africa and the Middle East within its purview—exploring the historic social, economic, and political links between these two regions, as well as the modern challenges they face. Interdisciplinary in its nature, The Journal of the Middle East and Africa approaches the regions from the perspectives of Middle Eastern and African studies as well as anthropology, economics, history, international law, political science, religion, security studies, women''s studies, and other disciplines of the social sciences and humanities. It seeks to promote new research to understand better the past and chart more clearly the future of scholarship on the regions. The histories, cultures, and peoples of the Middle East and Africa long have shared important commonalities. The traces of these linkages in current events as well as contemporary scholarly and popular discourse reminds us of how these two geopolitical spaces historically have been—and remain—very much connected to each other and central to world history. Now more than ever, there is an acute need for quality scholarship and a deeper understanding of the Middle East and Africa, both historically and as contemporary realities. The Journal of the Middle East and Africa seeks to provide such understanding and stimulate further intellectual debate about them for the betterment of all.