Financial opening, financial development and industrial restructuring: a mediating effect analysis

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to probe into the influence mechanism of financial opening onto industrial restructuring from the prism of financial development and examine the role of the credit market, capital market and currency market in transmitting the impact of financial opening onto industrial restructuring in both developed countries and developing countries. Design/methodology/approach In the theoretical model, the indicator of financial opening was introduced in Cobb–Douglas production function formula. Using constant elasticity of substitution utility function, based on Engel’s law, the optimal industrial structure in the economy was concluded. For the empirical analysis, data was collected from 36 developed countries and 34 developing countries during the period 2000 to 2019. Multiple mediator models with bootstrap techniques were used to identify the linkage between financial opening, financial development and industrial restructuring. Findings First, there is a U-shaped relationship between financial opening and industrial restructuring. Second, financial development plays a mediating role in transmitting the effects of financial opening onto industrial restructuring mainly through the credit market at the global level. Third, developed countries are in a trend of “reindustrialization,” while developing countries show a trend of “premature deindustrialization.” Moreover, for developed countries, the capital market leads to reindustrialization, while the credit market and currency market contribute to deindustrialization. For developing countries, the capital market and credit market lead to deindustrialization, while the currency market contributes to industrialization. Originality/value Unlike most previous researches, this paper focuses on examining three-variable relationship between financial opening, financial development and domestic industrial restructuring. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, monetary policy shifts of developed economies have led to an increase in cross-border capital flows, which will lead to the increasing risks for international financial markets and the reallocation of the global value chain. It is of great significance to clarify the linkage between these three variables in the face of a volatile international financial environment.