Control of the Spread of COVID-19 by the Sentinel Method and Numerical Simulation of the Studied Model Solution

Abstract

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic represents a global public health emergency unprecedented in recent history. This explains the growing interest of scientists in this subject. Indeed, the question of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous scientific works, with the aim of estimating the reproduction number, the start date of the epidemic or the cumulative incidence. Their results have contributed to epidemiological surveillance and informed public health policy decisions. In our work, using basic data and statistics from the city of Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, we first consider a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission taking into account the possibility of transmission from dead populations to susceptible populations; then, we use another method which is the sentinel’s method of JL Lions to estimate the number of infected populations without any time trying to know the beginning of the epidemic; finally, we highlight the numerical simulation of the considered model solution.