The Impact of Moroccan Banks on Economic Growth in African Countries: Analyzing the Synchronization between the Financial and Business Cycles in WAEMU

Abstract

The strategic choice of Moroccan banks to conquer the African market has accelerated since the mid-2000s. According to the Banking Commission of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Moroccan banks concentrate 29.6% of the market share in the WAEMU region in 2015, and more than 30% of the share of global net income in the region. The article is devoted to the research of the role of Moroccan banks in the economic development in African countries. Can Moroccan banks affect real economic activity and act as catalysts for financial and economic development in African countries? To answer this question, we examine the co-movements between loans granted by Moroccan banks in African countries and real activity in those countries. Therefore, we use the synchronization index proposed by Hading and Pagan (2002). The cycles were obtained with a Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter. The concordance index values, cross-correlation values were used to identify the characteristics of the relationships between the cyclical components. The study covers the period 2006-2015 and focuses on three Moroccan banking groups (Attijariwafabank, BMCE Bank of Africa and Banque Centrale Populaire BCP) set up in seven countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, Togo and Niger. The empirical results revealed that the financial (credits granted by Moroccan banks) and business (real activity) cycles are highly synchronized in WAEMU. The study concluded that the bank credits have a positive impact on real activity in WAEMU countries within the period examined.