Future Developments in German Fish Market – Integration of Market Expert Knowledge into a Modelling System

International Journal on Food System Dynamics Pub Date : 2017-06-23 DOI:10.18461/IJFSD.V9I1.915

L. Angulo, P. Salamon, M. Banse, R. Döring, Matthias Keller, M. Leeuwen

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Globally fish has become more important in the human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data that hinders the differentiation on fish category level on the supply and demand side and across EU member states. The Fishmodul in AGEMEMOD provides long term predictions for the fish market by fish categories at EU member state level. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. Additionally, opinions of market experts from private sector and research institutions through interviews and an elaborated questionnaire is integrated into the model to deal with the insufficient information. Thus, expertise knowledge provides better and accurate information of the sector for market projections. As results, baseline projections were adjusted, showing a slowly increase over the years, but higher production level by 2030.

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德国鱼市场的未来发展——将市场专家知识整合到建模系统中

在全球范围内，鱼类在人类营养中变得越来越重要，因此预计未来几年全球消费量将大幅增长。鱼类市场的正常预测受到可靠数据的限制，这些数据阻碍了供需双方和欧盟成员国鱼类类别水平的差异。AGEMEMOD中的Fishmodu按欧盟成员国级别的鱼类类别为鱼类市场提供了长期预测。为此，AGMEMOD对2030年的现状进行了模拟。此外，还将私营部门和研究机构的市场专家通过访谈和精心编制的问卷提出的意见纳入模型，以解决信息不足的问题。因此，专业知识为市场预测提供了更好、准确的行业信息。因此，基线预测进行了调整，显示多年来增长缓慢，但到2030年产量水平会更高。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal on Food System Dynamics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Understanding the development of the food system requires a system view that captures the complexity of the system and its many interrelationships with its economic, social and natural environments. The Journal accepts and offers papers within this broad range of issues focussing on the management, policy, marketing, consumer aspects, transparency, e-commerce, institutional or regional development, information and communication systems, ressource economics, production economics, chain management, network economics, and similar aspects. Papers may focus on modeling, empirical research or theoretical analyis. This broad range of publication opportunities asks authors to follow clear lines of arguments and to present arguments in a convincing way that avoids unnecessary complexities of model formulations if not relevant for the support of arguments. The publication of scientific articles is complemented by a number of sections that provide room for publications with a more specific focus: ''Case studies'': A section on case studies of the ''Harvard Type'' allows the publication of studies that might build on established scientific methodology but demonstrate its use in ceratin decision environments. Case studies might be complemented by ''teaching cases'' that are kept on a database outside the journal but accessible to readers on approval by authors. ''Research Forum'': It allows to discuss newly emerging research challenges or to contribute to ongoing scientific discussions on research problems. In addition, authors might initiate a discussion on issues brought up by articles published in the journal. ''Research Notes'': It provides room for specific shorter scientific contributions with a narrow scope.