Study on the Precursor Signal Capturing of Unfavorable Weather: Months/Years in Advance to Ultra-Early Forecast for Hourly Transient Weather Changes during the Beijing Winter Olympics

IF 2.1 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Deying Wang, Jizhi Wang, Yuanqin Yang, Liangke Liu, Wenxing Jia, J. Zhong, Yaqiang Wang
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Today, among the existing numerical weather prediction models, those detailing target classifications have been sufficiently explored; however, there are still many weather forecasting goals and needs, and research from theoretical to practical methods still needs additional study. For example, it is important to know as early as possible (months to years in advance) the forecast during a “specific large public event,” such as the hourly weather forecast for the Olympic Games. This study elaborates on the theory and methods for such ultra-early prediction of severe transient weather processes in the atmosphere. The main results of this study include (1) establishing the academic concept to capture precursor signals in modern meteorology and provide definitions; (2) establishing methods for capturing precursory signal quantification of unfavorable weather and proposing quantitative measurable thresholds; and (3) proposing the “ultra-early prediction” target task. A typical case is discussed: the meteorological conditions of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which serves as an example of social demand for weather forecasting of “special large-scale public activities,” as the case results show that the real-time observations during the Beijing Winter Olympics are consistent with the forecast and followed the precursor signal developed using the theoretical and methodological approaches in this study. The numerical quantization indicators for precursor signals include: (1) for a decrease in the height of the mixed layer hidden in the diurnal change; the precursor signal threshold is defined as a drop of more than 100 m for 3 consecutive days; (2) the signal of the δΘe displayed as a change by “negative ⟶ positive” of more than seven days in a continuous period. (3) the supersaturation (S) with thresholds reaching 6–7%, as well as the threshold <0.5 × 10−3 for saturated condensation flux signals (ξp); and (4) the hourly resolution transport index of PLAM (parameter linking air-pollution to meteorological condition) PLAM ⟶ obj remaining continuous for 48 h, with its threshold reaching more than 100.
北京冬奥会逐时瞬变天气预报的不利天气前兆信号捕获研究:提前数月/年至超早预报
如今,在现有的数值天气预测模型中,那些详细描述目标分类的模型已经得到了充分的探索;然而,天气预报的目标和需求仍然很多,从理论到实践的研究方法还需要进一步的研究。例如,尽早(提前数月至数年)了解“特定大型公共活动”期间的天气预报是很重要的,例如奥运会的每小时天气预报。本研究阐述了大气中严重瞬态天气过程超早期预报的理论和方法。本研究的主要成果包括:(1)建立了捕捉现代气象学前兆信号的学术概念并提供了定义;(2) 建立获取不利天气前兆信号量化的方法,并提出量化的可测量阈值;(3)提出“超早期预测”目标任务。以北京冬奥会的气象条件为例,作为社会对“特殊大型公共活动”天气预报需求的一个例子,案例结果表明,北京冬奥会期间的实时观测与预测一致,并遵循了本研究采用理论和方法论方法开发的前兆信号。前兆信号的数值量化指标包括:(1)对于日变化中隐藏的混合层高度的降低;前兆信号阈值被定义为下降超过100 m,连续3天;(2) Δθe的信号显示为“负”的变化 ⟶ 阳性”连续七天以上。(3) 阈值达到6–7%的过饱和度(S),以及阈值<0.5 × 饱和凝结通量信号为10−3(ξp);和(4)PLAM的小时分辨率传输指数(将空气污染与气象条件联系起来的参数)PLAM ⟶ obj持续48 h、 其阈值达到100以上。
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来源期刊
Advances in Meteorology
Advances in Meteorology 地学天文-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
3.40%
发文量
80
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Advances in Meteorology is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that publishes original research articles as well as review articles in all areas of meteorology and climatology. Topics covered include, but are not limited to, forecasting techniques and applications, meteorological modeling, data analysis, atmospheric chemistry and physics, climate change, satellite meteorology, marine meteorology, and forest meteorology.
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