Risk assessment of renewable energies: Global exposure

Abstract

The current stage of renewable energy (RE) development poses new challenges to this sector. The existing mechanisms of state stimulation of Renewable energy system are gradually exhausting its capacity. This requires the development of new methods to support the industry, or giving them up altogether. This article presents the results of the theoretical analysis of the systemic features of RE risk assessment at each stage of a project’s life cycle. A sectoral approach to the risk assessment of energy projects is proposed. It is based on the well-known logit-model that studies a set of external and internal indicators. Based on this model, a study of the dynamics of the risk indicators of RE projects on three basic stages was conducted. Calculations were made for RE projects implemented in different countries of the world, including China, USA, Canada, Japan, India and a number of European countries. Initially, all projects were divided into three main groups depending on the types of state support: concessional lending, subsidies or the lack thereof. Based on the results of the calculations, the overall and average dynamics of risk by group and by project stage allowed for assessing the global effectiveness of state measures to support the sector, as well as for drawing appropriate conclusions in the context of individual countries. The results of the study are of practical importance and will be used in developing a new approach to risk assessment, taking into account the specifics of the RE market, as well as in enhancing the concept of competition in the global energy market.