Longevity and Health of U.S. Presidential Candidates for the 2020 Election

Abstract

The oldest person ever elected president of the U.S. could take office in 2021 – but questions about the health and longevity prospects of presidential candidates are now relevant given the advanced age of many of the candidates. In the absence of medical records, assessing health, longevity, and survival prospects for candidates requires the use of data from national vital statistics. Here we estimate the lifespan, healthspan, disabled lifespan, and four-year survival probabilities for U.S. citizens that match the attributes of all of the candidates and the sitting president for the next two election cycles. Results suggest that chronological age should not be a relevant factor in the forthcoming election. One Sentence Summary: Chronological age should not be a relevant criterion used to judge presidential candidates. 1 University of Illinois at Chicago and Lapetus Solutions 2 University of California at Los Angeles 3 University of Oklahoma 4 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 5 University of Macau 6 University of Hawaii and Kuakini Medical Center * Corresponding author: S. Jay Olshansky, Ph.D., School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W. Taylor Street, Room 885, Chicago, Illinois 60612 sjayo@uic.edu 312.355.4668