Hotting Up? Geopolitical Rivalry and Environmental Security in the Arctic

Abstract

Traditionally the Arctic has been on the margins of international political interest, either geopolitically or environmentally. Climate change, though, has changed this by appearing to open up new economic opportunities in the region. Interest in the High North has subsequently increased, both from the states of the region and beyond. To date, though, there has appeared no likelihood of this escalating into resource wars, despite this prospect being widely heralded a decade and a half ago. Instead, governance in the region, centered on the Arctic Council, has proved an exemplar of intergovernmental cooperation, even in the face of increased tensions between Russia and the West over the past two decades. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, though, has frozen this blossoming co-management of the High North and put its future in doubt. This is likely to have some negative consequences in terms of the environment and maritime safety in the region. However, despite a heightening of tensions, there remains little reason to expect a Russian military initiative in the region since all non-Russian territory will soon be under NATO protection and Moscow would have far more to lose than they could gain from such an act.