Joint models for cause-of-death mortality in multiple populations

Abstract

We investigate jointly modelling age–year-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death mortality rates across several countries and both genders. To maintain flexibility and scalability, we investigate MOGPs with Kronecker-structured kernels and latent factors. In particular, we develop a custom multi-level MOGP that leverages the gridded structure of mortality tables to efficiently capture heterogeneity and dependence across different factor inputs. Results are illustrated with datasets from the Human Cause-of-Death Database (HCD). We discuss a case study involving cancer variations in three European nations and a US-based study that considers eight top-level causes and includes comparison to all-cause analysis. Our models provide insights into the commonality of cause-specific mortality trends and demonstrate the opportunities for respective data fusion.