THE EFFECT OF NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION ON TRADE IN ELEVEN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Muhammad Riyadh Ghozali Lubis, N. Karim
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This study examined the effect of nominal exchange rate depreciation on the trade balance in 11 Asian-African countries between 1980 and 2019, and within the context of an exogenously determined single structural break. The countries had persistently experienced both nominal exchange rate depreciation and upward trends in trade in goods. Using the Chow test to frame the discussion, these countries were found to be facing structural changes associated with external factors such as the commodity price crisis in South Asia and the global financial crisis. The time-series autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with bounds test for cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM) was also applied for the analysis. The results of the study showed a long-term cointegration between the trade in goods and other variables included. Specifically, the nominal exchange rate depreciation positively affected the trade in goods in both the long-run and short-run in most of the Asian-African countries studied. There was a positive relationship between trade and foreign direct investment in the short-run, but this relationship mostly became insignificant in the long-run. Gross domestic product had a significant impact on trade performance in goods in both the long-run and short-run in all countries studied.
名义汇率贬值对11个发展中国家贸易的影响
本研究考察了1980年至2019年期间,在外因决定的单一结构性断裂背景下,名义汇率贬值对11个亚非国家贸易平衡的影响。这些国家一直经历名义汇率贬值和货物贸易上升的趋势。使用Chow检验来构建讨论框架,发现这些国家正面临与外部因素(如南亚商品价格危机和全球金融危机)相关的结构性变化。采用协整界检验和误差校正机制(ECM)的时间序列自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法进行分析。研究结果表明,货物贸易与其他变量之间存在长期协整关系。具体而言,名义汇率贬值对大多数亚非国家的长期和短期货物贸易都产生了积极影响。在短期内,贸易与外国直接投资之间存在正相关关系,但从长期来看,这种关系大多变得微不足道。在所研究的所有国家中,国内生产总值对货物贸易的长期和短期表现都有重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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