China-United Kingdom Free Trade Area: likely impact on the economy and on specific industry sectors in both countries

IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies Pub Date : 2017-01-27 DOI:10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2016-0032

Shumei Chen, Dandan Li

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to predict the likely economic effects of a FTA on both China and the United Kingdom (hereafter the UK). Design/methodology/approach - Following literature review and trade relationship briefing, this paper employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) simulation to predict the economic effects of such a FTA on both China and the UK. Findings - The simulation results indicate that a China-UK free trade agreement (hereafter CUFTA) will bring more benefits than harm to both China and the UK and achieving zero tariff or reducing TBT is mutually beneficial for both China and the UK, with the growth in GDP, economic welfare, as well as import and export. Combining zero tariff and the reduction of TBT in exceptional departments is the most favorable way to improve the macroeconomic effects without bring damage effects on the comparative disadvantage industries such as transport equipment, chemicals industries for China and textiles and apparel industry for the UK. Originality/value - After the UK voted to leave the European Union (hereafter the EU), CUFTA is put on the agenda by both governments, yet researches on CUFTA are barely started, this paper being one of the early trials. Besides, based on the simulation results, some policy suggestions will be put forward for future negotiations and industrial policies adjustment.

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中英自由贸易区：可能对两国经济和特定行业产生影响

目的——本文的目的是预测自由贸易协定对中国和英国（以下简称英国）可能产生的经济影响。设计/方法/方法-在文献综述和贸易关系简报之后，本文采用全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）模拟来预测这种自由贸易协定对中国和英国的经济影响。研究结果-模拟结果表明，中英自由贸易协定（以下简称CUFTA）对中英双方的利大于弊，实现零关税或减少TBT对中英两国都是互利的，有利于GDP、经济福利以及进出口的增长。零关税与特殊部门降低TBT相结合，是在不给中国的运输设备、化工、英国的纺织服装等相对劣势行业带来损害的情况下，提高宏观经济效应的最有利途径。独创性/价值-在英国投票决定退出欧盟（以下简称欧盟）后，英国和英国政府都将CUFTA提上了议程，但对CUFTA的研究才刚刚开始，本文是早期的试验之一。此外，基于模拟结果，还将对未来的谈判和产业政策调整提出一些政策建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies (JCEFTS) negotiates China''s unique position within the international economy, and its interaction across the globe. From a truly international perspective, the journal publishes both qualitative and quantitative research in all areas of Chinese business and foreign trade, technical economics, business environment and business strategy. JCEFTS publishes high quality research papers, viewpoints, conceptual papers, case studies, literature reviews and general views. Emphasis is placed on the publication of articles which seek to link theory with application, or critically analyse real situations in terms of Chinese economics and business in China, with the objective of identifying good practice in these areas and assisting in the development of more appropriate arrangements for addressing crucial issues of Chinese economics and business. Papers accepted for publication will be double–blind peer-reviewed to ensure academic rigour and integrity.