Epidemiological Situation on Tick-Borne Viral Encephalitis in the Russian Federation in 2022 and Forecast of its Development for 2023

Abstract

The aim of this review is to predict the incidence of tick-borne viral encephalitis (TBVE) in the Russian Federation for 2023 based on analysis of the epidemiological situation on TBVE during 2012–2022. Over the decade, the highest incidence of TBVE was registered in the Siberian, Volga and Ural Federal Districts. In 2022, the Ural Federal District took the second place, the share of the North-Western one decreased by almost two times. Ranking of territories according to the rate of TBVE incidence at the level of constituent entities has made it possible to attribute 16 of them to the group of regions with a high epidemic risk, 14 – to medium epidemic risk, and 18 – to a low epidemic risk. In 2022, the incidence of TBVE in Russia increased by 1.9 times compared to 2021, and amounted to 1.34 0/0000. Despite the increase in the incidence of TBVE in 2022, a significant downward trend has been retained. The rate of infection of ticks removed from humans in 2022 was below the long-term average values. PCR and ELISA were applied for tests. Infection rate of ticks from environmental objects when studied by PCR was higher than the multi-year average values, and lower when studied by ELISA. In 2022, 3.5 million people were immunized against TBVE (vaccinated and revaccinated). Emergency immunoprophylaxis with immunoglobulin covered 24.5 % of the people affected by tick bites (children accounted for 34.3 %). The forecast for TBVE incidence in Russia in 2023 remains favorable. It is expected to be reduced to (0.83±0.298) 0/0000. However, there was not only an increase in the number of TBVE cases, but also the proportion of clinical manifestations of the disease, as well as lethal outcomes among those who suffered from tick bites in 2022. If this pattern holds, the incidence of TBVE in 2023 will be higher than predicted, especially in the constituent entities where the share of individuals with manifest forms among those who suffered from tick bites has increased greatly.